Currency Futures Trading: Night Market Technical Update 5/6/10

Posted by: Richard Estrada  //  Category: Currency Futures Trading

There is really no word that really describes the currency futures market today. Today’s currency action reminded of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis in which the Japanese Yen Futures contract moved over 800 ticks in one day. The difference from today vs 1997 was we saw extreme moves in all the majors. Commodity traders day trading futures today were probably forced with a lot a tuff decisions and in my opinion, if your’e trading less than $20,000 the best play is to sit out and wait for things to calm down. Today’s currency action is also a clear indication why I believe technical support and technical resistance on longer-time frames can be so technically important. Let’s take a step back at look at the bigger picture by assessing the weekly charts.

The weekly chart of the British Pound Futures (6B) contract (see chart below) shows that the bears were able to break below the bottom of a bear flag technical formation (outlined in red), which might of instigated more technical selling for much larger players. You will also notice that the bears were able to pierce the next cycle low of 1.4778. The question now is how far are the bears willing to push and are the bulls looking to counter from a yet to be determined area of technical support?

The weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar Futures (6C) contract (see chart below) shows that the bears broke through the 13-week moving average (blue – .9759), which had been a pivotal area of technical support. Once the bears were able to break through this area they pushed the bulls all the way down to the 52-week moving average (green – .9363), which the bulls have been able to hold somewhat. The question for commodity traders is, is this down move a prelude to what’s to come, or was this move a strategic play to take out stops for traders who have been long for the last 2 or 3 months?

The weekly chart of the Euro Currency Futures (6E) contract (see chart below) shows that once the bears broke through the bear flag technical formation (outlined in red) the bears were in a free fall. It seems at least to this point they (bears) haven’t pulled any ripcord yet. The question for commodity traders now is will we see the bears make a move at the next cycle low of 1.2456, or is that to obvious?

The weekly chart of the Japanese Yen Futures (6J) contract (see chart above) shows an incredible move to the upside. The move up today at one point was over 600 ticks, so where do we go from here?  Are there other areas of technical support and technical resistance that might be seen when utilizing technical analysis in other time frames? For complete detailed technical analysis in the currency futures market, join me daily in our live trading room. A trading room created by professional traders for traders.

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If you would like just a nightly technical recap, update and outlook for the currency futures market simply sign up for my Nightly Technical Recap, Update and Outlook for the Currency Futures Market.


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Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied or otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the currency futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether trading futures is right for you in light of your financial condition.

 

 

 

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Currency Futures Trading: Day Trading Futures Recap 5/5/10

Posted by: Richard Estrada  //  Category: Currency Futures Trading

Another big day in the currency futures market. Commodity traders day trading currency futures were again witness to some extreme short-term volatility. Commodity traders who are currency futures trading are having to either give the currency futures market a little more room, or increase their frequency well maintaining tight stops. The question for commodity traders tonight is the same one we posed yesterday, which was will we see markets like the British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Euro Currency find some short-term technical support and bounce hard, or will the momentum of the week continue to be the way to go?

The daily chart of the June 2010 British Pound Futures contract (see chart below) shows that the British Pound Futures (6B) continues to test and hold near the bottom of a bull-flag technical formation (outlined in blue). All things considered today the British Pound didn’t fare badly, or not as badly as it might have (my opinion). The 5-day moving average (red – 1.5173) will not only be the initial area of technical resistance area, but also a potential pull-back target.

The daily chart of the June 2010 Canadian Dollar Futures contract (see chart below) shows that the bears were not only able to break through the 75-day moving average (green – .9714), but they (bears) were able to close the Canadian Dollar (6C) below this area. The question now is will the bulls look for an area of technical support in the vicinity of the upward channel (outlined in blue), or are the bears looking at another downside target?

The daily chart of the June 2010 Euro Currency Futures contract (see chart below) shows another huge day to the downside. Can you say TIMBERRRRR? The question for commodity traders is will we see a bounce somewhere, or are we believing that the Greece crisis is the potential collapse of the Euro Currency? I tend to speculate that even though this move over the last week is large, on a longer-term time frame the Euro Currency is trading at the same levels as it was a year ago. Therefore, I’m looking for areas in the Euro Currency (6E) that might be technical support areas from which a reversal could begin.

The daily chart of the June 2010 Japanese Yen Futures contract (see chart above) shows an explosive move up from the bottom of a downward channel (outlined in blue). The bulls were able to push the Japanese Yen above the 5-day moving average (red –1.0627), which had been a pivotal area of short-term technical resistance. You will also notice that the Japanese Yen (6J) is testing both the 25-day moving average (blue – 1.0686) and the top of a downward channel. A push through this area and we might some technical buying pressure. Are there other areas of technical support and technical resistance that might be seen when utilizing technical analysis in other time frames? For complete detailed technical analysis in the currency futures market, join me daily in our live trading room. A trading room created by professional traders for traders.

For more information on our Live Trading Room….

If you would like just a nightly technical recap, update and outlook for the currency futures market simply sign up for my Nightly Technical Recap, Update and Outlook for the Currency Futures Market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied or otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the currency futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether trading futures is right for you in light of your financial condition.


Nightly Recap & Outlook Currency Futures:
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Currency Futures Trading: Day Trading Futures Recap 5/4/10

Posted by: Richard Estrada  //  Category: Currency Futures Trading

Wow, let me say that again, Wow, what a day in the currency futures market. For commodity traders day trading futures, specifically currency futures we witnessed some huge moves particularly in the Euro Currency Futures market. This is the kind of day that can really punish commodity traders if they don’t have good discipline or try to hard to fight the tape. Commodity traders who are wrong here just need to know that as long you did a good job in protecting you equity, (as we refer to as keeping your powder dry) you will have another shot tonight or tomorrow to play for the pop counter traders look for. Let’s take a look at the daily charts and see what clues we may get by looking at the technical structure of these currency futures markets.

The daily chart of the June 2010 British Pound Futures contract (see top chart of the two charts below) shows that the bears continued to hold the day and actually were able to close the market below the bear flag technical formation (outlined in red). You will also notice very clearly that the 5-day moving average (red – 1.5239) has crossed below the 25-day moving average (blue – 1.5315), which is considered technically bearish. The only area of technical support that I can identify on the daily chart would be today’s low (1.5088), but when looking back at the daily chart I also am able to define a bull flag technical formation (outlined in blue), which when looking at the weekly chart (bottom chart of two below) is potentially a pivotal area of support longer term. The question is how to trade this technical structure in the British Pound (6B)?

The daily chart of the June 2010 Canadian Dollar Futures contract (see top chart of the two charts below) shows that the bears not only broke through the bottom of double bottom low (yellow eclipse between .9789 & .9805), but also were able to close the Canadian Dollar (6C) below this area. The question for commodity traders tonight is are the bears looking to test the bottom of the upward channel (outlined in blue), which would mean a break below the 75-day moving average (green – .9709), or are the bulls eyeballing an area of technical support that they may consider defending? The weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar (see bottom chart of the two chart below) shows that the Canadian Dollar is currently testing the 13-week moving average (.9775), which has been a pretty pivotal area of technical support since early 2009.

The daily chart of the June 2010 Euro Currency Futures contract (see to top chart of the two charts above) shows a bear train headed south in a hurry. I refer to this area as the technical abyss and in looking at either the daily or weekly chart (bottom of chart of the two charts above) of the Euro Currency (6E) I don’t see any technical support until the lows around 1.2872. For commodity traders looking at the Euro currency, are there other technical ideas to consider when looking too trade this market tonight?

The daily chart of the June 2010 Japanese Yen Futures contract (see top chart of the two charts above) shows that the bulls were able to defend the bottom of a downward channel (outlined in blue) today. The question for commodity traders tonight is was today’s bounce an indication of technical strength? The weekly chart (see bottom chart of the two charts above) shows that the Japanese Yen Futures is still trading in an area I refer to as no mans land, so even if we saw a significant bounce it could be a trap door set by the bears. Are there other areas of technical support and technical resistance that might be seen when utilizing technical analysis in other time frames? For complete detailed technical analysis in the currency futures market, join me daily in our live trading room. A trading room created by professional traders for traders.

For more information on our Live Trading Room….

If you would like just a nightly technical recap, update and outlook for the currency futures market simply sign up for my Nightly Technical Recap, Update and Outlook for the Currency Futures Market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied or otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the currency futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether trading futures is right for you in light of your financial condition.

 

 

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Currency Futures Trading: Day Trading Futures Update 5/4/10

Posted by: Richard Estrada  //  Category: Currency Futures Trading

Commodity traders day trading futures, specifically currency futures are witnessing some very large moves. The British Pound, Canadian Dollar (6C) and Euro Currency are all down over 100 ticks, while the Japanese Yen broke below a pivotal area of technical support, but has since rebounded. The question for commodity traders currency futures trading is how do they navigate this terrain of this kind of volatility? Let’s take a closer look at the currency futures market and see what we can deduce when applying technical analysis.

The daily chart of the June 2010 British Pound Futures contract (see chart below) clearly shows that the British Pound (6B) has pierced the bottom of a bear flag technical formation. Commodity traders should also note that there is technically nothing below this market until the lows around 1.4772. Remember, on Sunday I wrote that the technical structure of this market looked like the quite before the storm, well today looks like the storm.

The daily chart of the June 2010 Canadian Dollar Futures contract (see chart below) clearly shows that the bears were able to break through the double bottom low (yellow eclipse between .9789 & .9805) and appear poised to test the 75-day moving average (green – .9710). Looking at the chart below you will notice that technically this market could pull back to the bottom of the upward channel (outlined in blue) and still be considered technically bullish.

The daily chart of the June 2010 Euro Currency Futures contract (see chart below) shows that the Euro Currency Futures (6E) has broken through a pivotal technical low (1.3117) and basically has entered the daily abyss. To find the next downside target a commodity trader would have to refer to a weekly chart where they would see the lows around 1.2878 as the next potential downside target.

 

The daily chart of the June 2010 Japanese Yen Futures contract (see chart above) shows the Japanese Yen (6J) pierced a pivotal technical low (1.0558), but has since bounced back from the early low (1.0532). The 5-day moving average (red – 1.0620) will be a pivotal area of technical resistance and potentially a good gauge of technical strength. Are there other areas of technical support and technical resistance that might be seen when utilizing technical analysis in other time frames? For complete detailed technical analysis in the currency futures market, join me daily in our live trading room. A trading room created by professional traders for traders.

For more information on our Live Trading Room….

If you would like just a nightly technical recap, update and outlook for the currency futures market simply sign up for my Nightly Technical Recap, Update and Outlook for the Currency Futures Market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied or otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the currency futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether trading futures is right for you in light of your financial condition.

 

 

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