Currency Futures Trading Outlook 10/30/11
Posted by: Richard Estrada // Category: Currency Futures TradingA strong week for traders currency futures trading last week, particularly for those traders who were long the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Euro Currency and or Japanese Yen Futures. The question this week is can the bulls hold the momentum, or are some of these markets nearing the top of their run? Let’s take a closer look at the currency futures market and see what we can deduce when applying technical analysis.
The weekly chart of the British Pound Futures (see chart below) shows that traders were able to push the market above the 52-week moving average (green – 1.6051), which I considered a pivotal area of technical resistance. Also notice that the 4-week moving average (red – 1.5986) has crossed above the 13-week moving average (blue – 1.5956), which adds to the technical argument that the British Pound has turned bullish. Long-term Indicators are bullish at this time there are no technical indications this market is overbought.


The weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar Futures (see chart above) shows that traders were turned away in the area of the 52-week moving average (green – 1.0129). Like the British Pound the 4-week moving average (red – .9968) has crossed above the 13-week moving average (blue – .9955), which is considered bullish. The question now is who wins the week? Longer-term Indicators are bullish and are showing no signs of being overbought.
The weekly chart of the Euro Currency Futures (see chart below) shows that futures traders blew right through the 52-week moving average (green – 1.3929), which I had considered a significant area of technical resistance. The 4-week moving average (red – 1.4002) has crossed above both the 13-week moving average (blue – 1.3922) and 52-week moving average (green – 1.3929), which is considered technically bullish. Also notice that last week’s run up also pierced the top of a bull-flag technical formation (outlined in blue). Long-term Indicators are bullish with no Indicators signaling overbought conditions.


The weekly chart of the Japanese Yen Futures (see chart above) shows a market that continues to inch up with no major explosions to the upside in some time. Is this the quite before the storm? The 13-week moving average (blue – 1.3055) is the most important area of technical support in my opinion. Long-term Indicators continue to signal overbought conditions, but this has been the case for several months; therefore I wouldn’t place too much technical significance on that.
A last thought about this week’s technical outlook for futures trader’s currency futures trading this week. Some currency markets do appear a little top heavy, but have plenty of room to the upside before running into technical resistance. Will this be a good thing for longs, or will the bears look to make a play this week as some bulls may look to take profits at the end of the month? Once again, these are just technical tidbits for trades to decipher. Remember, in the end every trader makes their own mind based on their own directional bias, trading objectives and risk parameters. Good luck this week and hopefully good trading.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied or otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether such an investment is right for you in light of your financial position.
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