Currency Futures Trading: Commodity Traders Update 8/10/10
Posted by: Richard Estrada // Category: Currency Futures Trading
As commodity traders wait for the FOMC announcement, the currency futures markets are really swinging around. The question for commodity traders is this because of something commodty traders are anticipating, or is the intra-day volaitilty because the currency futures markets are a little thin and volatility tends to be exaggerated when liquidity is shallow? Let’s take a step back and look at weekly charts of the currency futures markets. Remember currency futures trading is not an exact science and as a commodity trader you can only speculate on direction; there are no “holy grail” secrets when applying technical analysis to the commodities markets.
The weekly chart of the British Pound Futures (6B) contract (see chart below) shows that the bulls were able to blow through three key technical areas. These areas in my opinion were pivotal areas of technical resistance and indicate that the rally in the British Pound Futures is technically credible. You will notice that the technical structure of the British Pound weekly chart has changed from lower lows and lower highs. The question for commodity traders now is can the bulls hold the line in the vicinity of the 4-week moving average (red – 1.5708), or will we see a bigger pullback that could even be considered a long-squeeze?

The weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar Futures (6C) contract (see chart below) shows that the bulls failed to onto the technical momentum after breaking out of a technical pennant formation (outlined in blue). You can see that the 3-moving averages I illustrate have all converged back within the pennant formation and are in very close proximity to the price of the Canadian Dollar. What does this mean? Technically I interpret this kind of technical structure as the quiet before the storm. A breakout either way may be an indication of direction over the next few months.
The weekly chart of the Euro Currency Futures (6E) contract (see chart below) shows that the bulls pushed through the 38.2% fibonacci level last week, but are now back at this level. You can see that the 4-week moving average (red – 1.3084) has been a pivotal area of technical support and might be and area to watch if you are looking for technical weakness.

The weekly chart of the Japanese Yen Futures (6J) contract (see chart above) shows that the bulls are getting close to testing a significant technical high (1.1817), while holding the Japanese Yen above the 5-day moving average (red – 1.1590). The question going forward is will we continue to see this, or will the 5-day moving average give way and technically entice sellers to jump in for a quick ride? Are there other areas of technical support and resistance that might be seen when utilizing technical analysis in other time frames? For a complete technical review of the currency futures market utilizing some of the most advanced analytical software, please join me and other professional traders for detailed technical analysis in the currency futures market.
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Opinions Expressed are subject to change without notice. I make no promises or guarantees implied of otherwise that utilizing technical analysis in the currency futures market will result in profits or limited losses. There is significant risk of financial loss in trading futures; therefore you should carefully consider whether such an investment is right for you in light of your financial position.























